Hempstead, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS61 KOKX 061146
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region moves offshore this afternoon. A
cold front passes through the area late tonight and through the
day Monday. A large Canadian high pressure system gradually
builds through mid week. The high will settle south of the area
late in the week. The high will settle south of the area late in
the week and towards the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track. Updated only for current conditions.

Surface high pressure from southeastern Canada and through the
northeast and into the Carolinas moves offshore through today as
a warm front approaches from the southwest. This front is
associated with low pressure centered over south central Canada.
Dry and mostly clear conditions prevail today with temperatures
near seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front, associated with low pressure moving through south
central Canada and into the Hudson Bay region, will pass
through the region this evening. This will be followed by an
approaching cold front, moving through late tonight and during
much of the day Monday. The front slows its eastward progression
Monday as the upper trough become negative and the associated
low tracks slowly northward through the Hudson Bay region. With
the CAMs and global guidance in fair agreement with the timing
of the front, and showers, have refined the timing of
precipitation, delaying the onset until late tonight, and
continuing through much of the day Monday, ending across the
eastern areas by this evening. And have increased probabilities
to categorical with the front. Have kept the mention of isolated
thunder as some CAPE and instability, along with upper forcing,
remains. Dry weather returns with the passage of the cold
front, and as a large Canadian high builds toward the region
Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
To begin the period an upper level low and its associated
trough will be anchored across SE Canada and the Northeastern
US. The upper low and its associated long wave trough will then
lift out late in the week for Friday into Saturday.

Upper level confluence will promote a rather expansive area of
high pressure which builds gradually during mid week. The high
will eventually get further south and settle nearby late in the
week into the beginning of next weekend. This will lead to a
prolonged stretch of dry weather as dew point readings lower to
more fall-like levels. The high will provide the first textbook
cP air mass of the fall season. This will lead to dry and crisp
early fall weather with cool / chilly nights and mild days.
Temperatures will average slightly below average through the
period. Look for the coolest readings at night, especially in
the more rural and outlying areas with strong radiational
cooling away from the urban areas. Overnight minimums will be in
the 40s, and possibly a few upper 30s in the outlying / rural
locations, and closer to 50 in the more metropolitan areas.
Daytime maxes will be in the 60s throughout the week, with a
warming trend getting closer to the weekend. Daytime max
temperatures should get back into the lower half of the 70s for
a good portion of the area for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settles over the area this morning, before moving
offshore this afternoon and evening. A warm front lifts through
tonight, followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday.

VFR through 06z Monday. MVFR conditions becoming likely in -SHRA
towards 09z-11z Monday for the city terminals. MVFR to IFR for KSWF
towards 08-09z.

NE winds veer around to the SE today, then S tonight. The winds then
switch to the W / NW Monday with a cold frontal passage.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through 06z Mon. Confidence is
below average with respect to wind gust occurrence towards early
this evening for coastal terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR and IFR likely in showers Monday morning. Becoming VFR
Monday afternoon with showers ending. Winds NW 10-15g20kt Monday
afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. Winds W-NW g15-20kt, mainly late
morning into the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters through
today. Ocean seas then build to SCA levels tonight as long
period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details)
move into the waters. These long period swells peak at 5 to 6
feet Monday, gradually subsiding below SCA late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Also, southerly winds ahead of a cold
front may briefly gust to near 25 kt on the ocean waters Monday
morning with the winds shifting to northwest with the cold front
passage. Then Monday night northwest gusts may be near SCA
levels. Early Tuesday morning winds and seas are expected to
fall below SCA levels. A SCA remains on the ocean waters late
tonight through early Tuesday morning.

Sub small craft conditions will prevail through the mid week
period on a W to NW wind. There may be times when wind gusts
approach 20 kt on the ocean Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET